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NFL Playoff Picture After Saturday: Updated Standings, Clinching Scenarios & Teams Still Alive

ATIQUE RAHMAN December 28, 2025

 

NFL Playoff Picture Update: Complete Standings, Clinching Scenarios & Remaining Contenders

Saturday’s NFL action dramatically reshaped the playoff landscape across both conferences. The Houston Texans secured a playoff berth with a crucial win over the Los Angeles Chargers, officially eliminating the Indianapolis Colts. That result also crowned the Denver Broncos as AFC West champions.

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens kept their postseason hopes alive by defeating the Green Bay Packers, a result that simultaneously handed the Chicago Bears the NFC North title.

With Week 18 approaching, most playoff spots are locked in—but division titles and seeding battles remain intense.

NFC Playoff Picture (After Saturday’s Games)

Only one NFC playoff spot remains open: the NFC South champion, currently led by the Carolina Panthers, though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still very much in contention.

🏈 NFC Standings

1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3) Clinched

Remaining games: at Panthers, at 49ers

No. 1 Seed Scenarios:

  • Seahawks win + Rams loss/tie + 49ers–Bears tie

NFC West Clinching Scenarios:

  • Seahawks win + Rams loss/tie + 49ers loss/tie

  • Seahawks tie + Rams loss + 49ers loss

Outlook:
Seattle holds a 46% chance to keep the No. 1 seed and a 50% chance to win the NFC West, per playoff projections.

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2. Chicago Bears (11-4) Clinched

Remaining games: at 49ers, vs Lions

Key notes:

  • Clinched playoff spot after Detroit’s Week 16 loss

  • Won NFC North following OT victory over Green Bay

  • Roughly 14% chance to earn the No. 1 seed

3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) Clinched

Remaining games: at Bills, vs Commanders

Key notes:

  • Back-to-back NFC East champions

  • Officially eliminated from No. 1 seed contention

4. Carolina Panthers (8-7)

Remaining games: vs Seahawks, at Buccaneers

NFC South Clinching Scenarios:

  • Panthers win + Buccaneers loss/tie

  • Panthers tie + Buccaneers loss

Outlook:
Carolina owns a 45% chance to win the NFC South, but the decisive showdown comes in Week 18 at Tampa Bay.


5. San Francisco 49ers (11-4) Clinched

Remaining games: vs Bears, vs Seahawks

Key notes:

  • Clinched postseason spot in Week 16

  • 27% chance to finish as NFC No. 1 seed

  • Winning out guarantees top seed and home-field advantage

6. Los Angeles Rams (11-4) Clinched

Remaining games: at Falcons, vs Cardinals

NFC West & No. 1 Seed Path (Very Slim):

  • Rams win both games

  • Seahawks lose to Panthers, beat 49ers

  • 49ers beat Bears, lose to Seahawks

  • Bears do not tie Lions

Outlook:
Rams’ No. 1 seed odds dropped sharply to 12% after Week 16.

7. Green Bay Packers (9-6-1) Clinched

Remaining game: at Vikings (Week 18)

Key notes:

  • Locked into the No. 7 seed

  • Cannot win NFC North

🔍 Still Alive in the NFC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8)

Remaining games: at Dolphins, vs Panthers

Outlook:
Despite dropping out of playoff position, Tampa Bay still holds a 54% chance to win the NFC South thanks to a critical Week 18 matchup vs Carolina and a favorable tiebreaker.

AFC Playoff Picture Breakdown

🏈 AFC Standings

1. Denver Broncos (13-3) Clinched

Remaining game: vs Chargers

No. 1 Seed Scenario:

  • Patriots loss

  • Bills loss/tie

  • Jaguars loss/tie

Outlook:
Denver snapped Kansas City’s nine-year AFC West dominance and owns roughly a 60% chance at the No. 1 seed.

2. New England Patriots (12-3) Clinched

Remaining games: at Jets, vs Dolphins

AFC East Clinching Scenarios:

  • Patriots win + Bills loss/tie

  • Patriots tie + Bills loss

Outlook:

  • 83% chance to win AFC East

  • 30% chance for No. 1 seed

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) Clinched

Remaining games: at Colts, vs Titans

AFC South Clinching Scenarios:

  • Win both games

  • Finish 1-1 and Texans lose Week 18

Outlook:
Jacksonville has a 61% chance to win the division.


4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)

Remaining games: at Browns, vs Ravens

AFC North Clinching Scenario:

  • Win or tie vs Browns

Outlook:
Steelers control their destiny with an 82% chance to secure the division title.

5. Buffalo Bills (11-4) Clinched

Remaining games: vs Eagles, vs Jets

Key notes:

  • Locked into playoffs

  • Slim 17% chance to overtake Patriots for AFC East

6. Houston Texans (11-5)

Remaining game: vs Colts

AFC South Scenarios:

  • Jaguars lose both games

  • Jaguars go 1-1 and Texans win Week 18

Outlook:
Texans have a 39% chance to steal the division.

7. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) Clinched

Remaining game: at Broncos

Key notes:

  • Locked into wild-card position

  • Cannot win division

🔍 Still Alive in the AFC

Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

Remaining game: at Steelers

Playoff Path:

  • Steelers must lose to Browns in Week 17

  • Ravens then need a Week 18 win

Teams Officially Eliminated from Playoff Contention

❌ AFC Eliminated

  • Indianapolis Colts

  • Miami Dolphins

  • Kansas City Chiefs

  • Cincinnati Bengals

  • New York Jets

  • Cleveland Browns

  • Tennessee Titans

  • Las Vegas Raiders

❌ NFC Eliminated

  • Detroit Lions

  • Minnesota Vikings

  • Dallas Cowboys

  • Atlanta Falcons

  • New Orleans Saints

  • Washington Commanders

  • Arizona Cardinals

  • New York Giants


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